國金證券：車市衝高回落，庫存低位Q3迎補庫需求
本文來自：新興產業觀察者，作者：國金電車團隊
7月1-10日乘用車零售39.6萬輛，同比去年+16%，較上月同期-6%。批發40.9萬輛，同比去年+16%，較上月同期-1%。由於6月是上半年節點，經銷商努力實現較強業績，加之地方政府部分支持消費政策在6月底截止，今年6月銷量恢復強勁，比過去10年6月最高銷量還高出10%。
電車短期衝量影響有限，中長期無虞。6月解封后累積需求釋放，部分地區補貼到期短期衝量，疊加7/8月份傳統淡季，考慮車企在手訂單，預計電車7月銷量與6月基本持平，燃油車或有所回落。考慮到潛在的補貼/購置税退坡、高油價、優質供給的陸續上市交付（理想L9、問界M7、哪吒S、小鵬G9等），四季度新能源車仍將大概率衝量。
6月衝量經銷商庫存大幅下降，汽零三季度迎來補庫需求。對於燃油車，6月份衝量有效降低經銷商庫存，6月份經銷商庫存係數跌至2021年三季度水平（缺芯較為嚴重的時期），三季度將迎來補庫需求。我們判斷，三季度汽車零部件業績將率先改善。
6月歐洲供給側尚未完全恢復，消費需求仍強勁。6月歐洲九國汽車銷量88.4萬輛，同/環比-17%/ +13%。1-6月累計銷量456.1萬輛，同比-15%。儘管面臨能源價格上漲，交付時間延長，但各國汽車協會表示需求仍大於供應，銷量同比下降主要因為半導體緊缺制約汽車生產。以德國為例，5、6月產量與出口已超過去年同期水平，但較18、19年同期仍有20%-30%左右差距，尚未完全恢復。從1-6月的數據可以反映出，半導體緊缺問題並無進一步惡化，呈現底部反轉態勢。隨着下半年緊缺問題改善，我們預計下半年汽車產銷量有望回暖。
新能源汽零景氣度將持續演繹，圍繞汽車智能化佈局確定成長標的。七八月份本身是行業淡季，加之6月衝量，7月數據環比持平或下降屬於預期之內，不必因此擔心中長期需求，觀察到頭部企業訂單恢復將是加倉良機。建議關注頭部企業與強勢造車新勢力及其產業鏈。從智能化滲透率和國產化率提升角度，佈局底盤（懸掛+制動）、安全、微電機等領域。
風險提示：電動車銷量不及預期；產業鏈競爭激烈加劇；政策變動風險。
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