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渣打上調美國7月加息預期至75個基點
阿思達克 07-19 09:25
渣打發表報告,改為預計美國聯儲局將在下周宣布加息75個基點,該行之前預計加息50個基點,維持預計在9月加息50基點,隨後隨著經濟活動放緩而在第四季暫停加息。 渣打對聯邦基金利率2022年底目標保持在3%,並預計在整個2023年保持不變。該行表示,曾考慮將7月的加息預測上調至100個基點,儘管認為如此大幅度的加息將是一個政策錯誤,鑑於經濟和通脹對已經實施的緊縮政策做出反應的速度存在不確定性,認為存在收緊政策過快的風險。 渣打認為,勞動力市場可能趕上經濟和需求指標,並可能需要在較長時間內以較高失業率以降低通脹,供給側因素對聯儲局的利好程度可能不如過去30年。
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