《大行報告》野村升金蝶(00268.HK)目標價至21元 下調明源雲(00909.HK)目標價至9元
野村發表研究報告指出,中國第二季部分城市「封城」及宏觀環境疲弱影響,拖累中國軟體即服務(SaaS)行業需求,大部分經濟部門推遲其資訊科技開支。根據工信部數據顯示,4及5月份中國軟件行業收入增長按年放緩至8.8%及9.9%,主要由於市場對資訊科技需求低迷。該行觀察到特別是對政府及大型企業而言,需要面對面互動的產品發布/路演、訂單招標和項目交付受到影響,儘管SaaS公司在遠程工作模式中效率甚高。
該行認為,隨著疫情基本受控,上海及北京等主要城市於6月份重新開份,預期經濟將逐步復甦,但7月份以來疫情捲土重來,或導致復甦過程中的需求帶來不確定性。企業管理層或需要優先考慮如收入增長等更為迫切的計劃,而非資訊科技開支,因此料大多數經濟部門的軟件需求復甦或需時更長。相信政府、中小企業客戶需求依然低迷,國企客戶需求則是一線希望。
此外,該行維持對中國SaaS行業的長期建設性看法,並對下半年溫和復甦路徑保持謹慎,重申對金蝶(00268.HK)的「買入」評級,認為其在雲遷移中的執行力較好,可能導致客戶黏性和現金流軌跡更強,目標價由20.5元升至21元;對明源雲(00909.HK)評級由「買入」下調至「中性」,目標價由12元降至9元,認為目前內房面對嚴峻挑戰,或持續對公司基本面構成壓力。
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