《大行報告》摩通:港銀偏好中銀香港(02388.HK) 無涉及內地房貸
摩根大通發表研報指,香港銀行股於過去三個交易日調整6%,對比同期恆指跌3%,相信主要是由於近期內地個別地區出現「拒付房貸」事件,引發市場對中國資產質素的擔憂。初步評估後預期,與中國在岸抵押貸款相關的潛在資產質素風險,應小過香港銀行的中國商業房地產貸款業務,不排除短期內負面情緒會進一步加劇,對股價造成進一步影響。
但摩通指出,中銀香港(02388.HK)為覆蓋的港銀中唯一一家沒有中國境內抵押貸款業務,重申看好中銀香港;其他銀行估計按揭餘額佔集團貸款額約1%至3%,低於商業房地產貸款業務風險敞口的1%至14%。
摩通又指,目前事件相關項目主要位於河南及湖北兩省,恆生(00011.HK)和大新銀行(02356.HK)在當地沒有業務,而匯控(00005.HK)、渣打(02888.HK)及東亞銀行(00023.HK)於一線城市只有一至兩家分支機構,個別銀行的按揭業務主要為二級市場買賣,未涉及預售及新樓項目,因此計及地理因素及商業慣例,預期實際潛在風險可能會更小。
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