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花旗料中國全年GDP達3.9% 提振總需求成最大挑戰
阿思達克 07-12 12:35
花旗集團中國首席經濟學家余向榮預料,內地下半年經濟增長恢復到5%左右,全年則預測達3.9%,未能達全年GDP目標5.5%,並基於今年基數較低及刺激經濟成效持續,上調明年GDP增速預測至6.1%。 他表示,現時內地基本上已解決供應端問題,目前面臨最大的問題在於如何提振總需求,惟需求恢復仍需時,或呈滯後情況,故要在控制疫情與經濟發展之間取得平衡;他又認為,政府或需追加至少1.5萬億元人民幣財政增量資金,但發行特別國債或修訂預算的可能性較低。 他形容房地產最差時期已過去, 現時銷售已逐步恢復,加上由政府主導的政策出台,有利其增長,相反民企開發商目前仍有壓力,存下行風險;若現時銷售呈穩健增長,料情況或有所緩和,他預料內地政府支持房地產政策持續,包括調整首付比例、下調房貸利率、放鬆一線城市等,恢復買家信心。 通脹高企成全球憂慮之一,他表示,大宗商品和能源價格或正在全球經濟衰退風險中見頂,料內地PPI將從上半年7.8%左右回落至下半年3.9%,並在明年下滑至1.8%,內地CPI將從上半年1.7%倍增至下半年3.4%,並在明年維持在3.3%左右。 他表示,下半年仍看淡人民幣,料人民幣跌至6.95兌1美元,並預測經常戶口盈餘由今年佔GDP 1.8%下降至明年1%以下,成為中期人民幣貶值壓力的主要來源,若美國取消對華關稅,或在短期內提振人民幣匯率。(ca/u) ~
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