中銀香港(02388.HK):環球經濟仍未達失業率攀升等深層衰退指標
中銀香港(02388.HK)個人數字金融產品部資深財富顧問高耀豪表示,連續兩個季度經濟收縮為技術性衰退定義,但目前環球經濟仍未達到失業率攀升、消費急速下跌這些深層衰退指標。他指,市場普遍預計利率高位為明年3月,其後有機會回落。
中銀香港預期,美國聯儲局可能於7月和9月各加息75個基點,若通脹緩和,其後兩次加息25基點;樂觀情況下,美股下半年表現將好過上半年,若通脹持續導致衰退,美股需進一步調整。中銀香港經濟研究員丁孟表示,利率上升環境下,本港樓價有下行壓力。該行推薦中國A股和中國港股,以及中國可轉債;外匯方面看好美元和澳元。
該行表示,目前經濟衰退風險上升,市場仍正在等待通脹見頂訊號,因按年效應,今年下半年通脹有望下降;若通脹見頂,美國債息與聯邦基金利率一般將同步見頂,名義利率接近高位,真實利率上升動力或將下降,債息見頂將限制美元上升空間。
中銀香港首席經濟學家鄂志寰預料,中國內地下半年半年貨幣政策強調合理精準,增加結構性貨幣政策工具,支持特定行業、小微企業和綠色行業流動性,又認為利率有下調空間。她預料,今年第二季內地經濟增速有可能低過第一季,在有政策支持下,全年經濟增速將接近5.5%的官方目標。
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