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《大行報告》瑞信下調水泥股目標價 降潤泥(01313.HK)評級至「中性」
瑞信發表研究報告指,中國水泥市場出現復甦,但進度緩慢,預測今年水泥需求將按年下跌約10%至15%,其中上半年跌15%,換言之下半年水泥需求預期較上半年回升約15%。該行認為,水泥需求將在7月下旬見底,由於部分地區價格已觸及水泥企業的成本線,預計水泥價格再下行空間有限;出貨量則估計恢復至約70%至75%的水平,庫存料降至約60%。 雖然水泥需求被壓抑,但該行預期復甦速度緩慢,當中受到第三季陰雨天氣、典型淡季、房地產銷售溫和改善等因素影響,預期要到第四季建築需求釋放,才會出現明顯回升。在上半年需求疲軟的背景下,該行預計水泥股中期盈利將按年下降約45%,將全年盈利預測下調約29%,代表下半年預測跌幅達約18%。 瑞信維持海螺水泥(00914.HK)及中國建材(03323.HK)的「增持」評級,目標價則分別下調至43元及9.8元。同時,鑑於華南新增產能和暴雨天氣影響銷量等下行壓力,該行將華潤水泥(01313.HK)的評級由「增持」下調至「中性」,目標價由8.7元降至5.8元。
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