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《大行報告》大摩:部分內地零售銀行業務復甦 但全年淨息差承壓
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指出,內地部分城市「封城」削弱了信貸需求,尤其是對零售貸款的需求。當中招行(03968.HK)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)均表示今年上半年的零售貸款增長放緩。不過,隨着招行的信用卡貸款於6月分出現顯着復甦,意味着消費需求有恢復跡象。 此外,該行引述招行與平安銀行均預期,內地上半年放寬房地產政策,隨着政策逐步生效,將有助刺激下半年的抵押貸款需求,儘管可能仍需要一段時間,因爲招行發現客戶目前對買樓仍有所猶豫。 摩根士丹利認爲,內地下調貸款市場報價利率(LPR)加上鼓勵支持實體經濟,相信內銀全年淨息差承壓。招行計算在5年期LPR下調的情況下,預期對今年淨利息收入影響約5億元人民幣,由於貸款定價滯後,料2023年該數字將翻倍。事實上,內銀正採取不同的措施來緩解淨息差收窄,如招行將更多的貸款額度分配給資產收益率較高的零售貸款,並致力保持較低的融資成本;平安銀行將利用集團資源和差異化定價方式,抵銷市場及宏觀環境致資產收益率下降的壓力。
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