植耀辉: 美股低位反弹纳指扬 港股续区间上落
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,美股隔晚(5日)大幅波动,投资者对经济衰退之担忧加剧,油价重挫,2年期与10年期债息出现倒挂,三大指数亦一度急跌;不过科技股有资金吸纳,纳指反弹之余收市升幅更达到1.75%,标普500指数收市亦微升。道指亦由早段曾急跌742点后逐步收复失地,最终收报30,967点,下跌129点。投资者继续关注本周五公布之就业数据表现。
港股方面,昨日走势持续反复,开市早段一度急升368点,不过随著A股由升转跌,大市升幅亦有所收窄,其后更倒跌;尾市虽能有所反弹,但升幅亦只得22点,收报21,853点。过去两个交易日,恒指全日波幅均达到400点或以上,至于成交则稍为缩减至1,226亿元。
医药股继续为市场焦点之一,药明(02269.HK)连续第二日为最大升幅蓝筹,昨日再升6.5%,两个交易日累升15%,阿里健康(00241.HK)亦升近5%。不过周一急升之另外两只医药股中生制药(01177.HK)及石药集团(01093.HK)则无以为继,前者下跌近1%,石药则微跌。值得留意的是,消费电子类股份继续挨沽,舜宇(02382.HK)及小米(01810.HK)分别下跌4.8%及3.5%。
如笔者早前指出,港股7月将呈大幅波动格局,毕竟左右市况之因素颇多,例如昨日传出美国或取消部分加微中国之关税,港股即时出现反弹;惟A股表现转弱遂令恒指升幅又再度收窄。加上本周尚要留意美国经济数据,预期恒指将继续维持21,500至22,500点水平上落。
(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)
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外围衰退风险增将拖累商品及金属股
耀才研究部称,隔晚(5日)美股三大指数个别发展,美国10年期国债息率曾低见2.786厘,与2年期债息倒挂,引起经济衰退的忧虑,道指曾跌逾700点,纳指最多跌2%,不过跌幅慢慢收窄,纳指最终更倒升近2%。衰退或会影响商品前景,油价自5月起第一次跌穿100美元大关,花旗唱淡油价年底前会回到每桶65美元的水平,纽油曾经急挫一成,消息将拖累油股,主要金属亦跌2%至4%亦影响相关板块。金龙中国指数升1.5%,市场主力资金仍然集中于互联网以及医药板块,恒指将继续于22,000点关口至20天线争持,等待美国调低中国关税的憧憬实现。
技术上,恒指回补6月27日上升裂口即21,762点后找到支持,并守住5月起形成的一条上升轨道,属浪高于浪格局,后市仍然有机会挑战4月位高位。不过小心如果跌穿21,300点轨道支持的话,则需要市况可能逆转。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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