渣打香港料下半年恆指難見首季低位 或有機會上試24,000點
渣打香港財富管理發表今年下半年市場展望。渣打香港財富管理投資策略主管梁振輝表示,H股市場跟隨A股,其於5、6月逐步轉好,認為恆指今年下半年難見首季低位,冀下半年先企穩22,000點,未來會逐步向好,下半年或有機會上試24,000點。
他表示,全球股票估值調整至更合理的水平,其估值正在變得低廉,經濟增長放緩帶來盈利下降的風險。由於疫情降溫,內地陸續推出刺激經濟政策,有助加快經濟復甦,有利亞洲經濟前景及區內投資氣氛,預期未來數月中國經濟表現將領先美國及歐洲。
他建議,下半年投資者採用「減股加債」策略,經濟衰退風險升溫令股票更波動、提升債券佔組合比例以爭取收益;而在股票方面,看好能源及金融、中國則留意工業及通訊等週期股、以及歐美健康護理股。
在地區方面,他表示,股票市場看好亞洲(日本除外),預期中國加推貨幣及財政刺激政策、有利亞洲經濟前景並吸引資金流入。他亦看好英國市場,股票市場中能源、金融及原材料股佔比較大,有望受惠高通脹週期。在債券方面則看好亞洲美元債及成熟市場高收益債。
渣打香港財富管理高級投資策略師林嘉文表示,目前壓低通脹上升趨勢,是聯儲局重中之中的工作,料下半年加息步伐持續;又認為若通脹於今年下半年得以紓緩,聯儲局或會減慢加息步伐,料今年底目標利率為3.25厘,低於聯儲局預期的3.4厘。
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