《大行報告》高盛料美國9月核心CPI按年升幅達6.3% 年底回落至5.5%
高盛發表報告,預計美國核心CPI按年升幅將在今年夏季再度加快,由5月的6%升至9月的6.3%,並在年底回落至5.5%。同時料2023年12月和2024年12月核心CPI升幅將分別放慢至2.4%和2.6%。
報告指出,剔除食品及能源價格後的核心PCE物價指數向來是聯儲局首選的通脹指標,但目前CPI可能比平時更重要,因為它只代表消費者支付的價格,原則上應該與通脹預期更相關,加上被傳媒大量報道。
因此,該行預測今夏CPI加速是聯儲局在9月會議前繼續大手加息的另一個原因,預計聯邦基金利率達到3.25至3.5%之後,經濟增長放緩和通脹連續下跌將促使聯儲局在年底結束緊縮政策。
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