植耀輝: 美股反覆靠穩 觀望經濟數據
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周五走勢反覆,早段受芯片股表現不佳拖累,另外6月ISM製造業指數低於市場預期,並創2020年6月以來最低,當中新訂單指數更兩年來首度萎縮,進一步證明美國經濟正出現放緩,加深投資者對後市之憂慮。不過盤中資金追捧防守性股份及大型科企股,令美股轉跌為升,最終三大指數均升近1%收市。不過全周計道指仍累跌1.3%,標普500指數則跌2.2%,納指則累跌超過4%。今日為美國獨立日假期休市,不過本周五將公布就業數據,結果將對美國經濟前景有更多啟示。
港股方面,在上半年最後一個交易日表現一般,收市下跌137點。總結上半年表現,恆指累跌1,538點或6.6%,在環球股市中表現並不差,同期美股三大指數跌幅則介乎15%-29%。若單計6月份恆指更累升444點或2.1%。成份股中,中海油(00883.HK)為表現最佳藍籌,累升達43%,中海外(00688.HK)及萬洲(00288.HK)則次之,分別累升34%及24%。至於表現最差藍籌分別之舜宇(02382.HK)、創科(00669.HK)及申洲(02313.HK),分別累跌48%、47%及37%。
由於上周五美股走勢回穩,預期今日港股亦有望扭轉跌勢。不過始終本周末美國將會公布重要經濟數據,相信投資者仍會觀望相關數據表現。預期恆指短期將於21,500至22,500點水平上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有中海油及創科)
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恆指只要未跌穿上升軌支持仍然維持樂觀
耀才研究部稱,回顧整個6月份,恆指上升444點,並未有實現六窮月的憂慮,全各全靠科網股持續靠穩,不過由於中美關係未有實際進展,市場仍在等待兩國元首談話,大市將於21,700點即市支持整固,等候突破。展望本周,中國和香港互聯互通下的ETF交易將於今日(4日)開始,北向合資格ETF初始名單共有83隻;南向初期名單共4隻ETF,留意大市成交能否配合增加,關注利好的港交所(00388.HK)。中國6月財新製造業PMI錄51.7,好過預期的50.2及前值的48.1,中國持續復甦將有望帶動股市氣氛,指數點試100天線水平後仍有望向上。
技術上,恆指即市支持可考慮回補6月27日上升裂口即21,762點,指數於5月起形成了一條上升軌道,小心如果跌穿21,300點軌道支持的話,則需要市況可能逆轉。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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