國泰君安：迎峯度夏即將開啟，歐洲多國重啟煤電
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：翟堃
摘要：
需求快速提升，政策嚴格調控，調整基本落地。1）即將進入7月居民用電旺季，由於國內氣温明顯高於2021年同期，需求開始快速提升，6.23日沿海八省煤炭日耗186萬噸，較上週增長14.8萬噸（+8.6%），存煤可用天數下降至16天，接近去年同期14天水平。6.24日上海實現陽性零新增，後續大面積復工復產將提速，帶動工業端用電量進一步提升。2）隨着需求的快速啟動，順利迎峯度夏成為重點任務，主產區山西、陝西、內蒙古均召開長協履約保供會議，要求嚴格執行保供政策，且國內各環節也對價格進行更嚴格要求，港口實際成交價由前期的約1400元/噸回落至約1200元/噸，接近要求的1155元/噸限制。3）根據煤炭運銷協會數據，6月上旬全國重點監測煤炭企業產量環比增長0.1%，供需情況依然偏緊，預計後續煤價仍將在限價水平高位運行。
全球煤炭緊張將加劇，歐洲多國重啟煤電。1）歐盟表示將於8月第二週起禁止進口俄羅斯煤炭，能源安全下越來越多歐洲國家提出重啟煤電，6月19日，德國政府宣佈將增加煤炭用量和煤電佔比，以緩和天然氣短缺現狀，並提前做好冬季儲氣工作；6月19日，奧地利政府與本國電力供應公司合作，重啟位於國家南部的一家煤電廠；6月20日，荷蘭政府宣佈將暫時取消對燃煤發電的限制至2024年；6月22日，意大利表示計劃在歐盟禁運全面落地前採購煤炭。2）我們判斷全球（不含中國）煤炭需求將迎來最高5.5%提升，支撐煤價長期高位。
美聯儲加息擾動即將結束。6月16日凌晨2點，美國FOMC宣佈加息75bp，全球商品價格受本次會議影響出現連續調整。6月24日聖路易斯聯儲主席布拉德強調衰退風險被“過分誇大”，油價止跌反彈。我們判斷衰退交易階段性吿一段落，全球減排大方向下煤炭行業已經多年低資本開支運行，高能源價格和高企業盈利未來將是常態。
投資建議：“全球供給”+“國內需求”核心邏輯持續演繹，行業基本面強勢難改，市場重新認知煤炭高分紅能力和盈利釋放能力，板塊盈利確定、估值極低、分紅可觀，長期高煤價下具備大幅提估值空間。推薦：1）穩健龍頭：陝西煤業；2）兼具成長：靖遠煤電、華陽股份；3）優質彈性：蘭花科創、山煤國際、兗礦能源、中煤能源、潞安環能、昊華能源；4）穩增長：平煤股份、山西焦煤、淮北礦業、上海能源、盤江股份、首鋼資源等。
風險提示。宏觀經濟持續下行；全球油氣價格下跌；煤炭供給超預期釋放。
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