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瑞銀中國企業家問卷調查:下半年政策放鬆有望進一步加碼
阿思達克 06-24 14:26
瑞銀實證所(UBS Evidence Lab)進行第十期中國企業家問卷調查,訪問共507名企業高管。調查顯示,疫情對企業經營的負面影響超過去年的調查結果。不過,許多受訪者仍對現行政策表示支持。43%受訪者表示政策對其業務有正面影響,33%表示有負面影響;47%的受訪者預計今年政策基本保持不變,約半數預計明年防疫政策可能會有所放鬆。 另外,受訪者對今年下半年前景展望比較疲弱,預計銷售增速放緩,利潤率、國內和出口訂單將有所下滑;僅有34%的受訪者計劃在今年下半年增加資本開支,遠低於2017年以來歷次調查結果。調查指出政策放鬆正在進行中,今年下半年有望進一步加碼,受訪企業將部分生產遷出中國的意願有所上升,日本、韓國、新加坡和越南爲首選目的地。企業將部分生產遷回中國的意願依然存在。 瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤預計,未來數月內地社融增速將進一步反彈,到今年底或有所放緩。中國與世界其他地區的防疫政策的差異對應了近期國內供應鏈擾動顯着、而全球供應鏈逐步改善。該行預計國內供應鏈和物流擾動的問題會進一步好轉,有助於部分緩解因此帶來的企業供應鏈對外轉移的壓力,但轉移意願可能會持續存在。(ek/u) ~
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