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《大行報告》花旗:亞洲銀行中喜愛港銀 料今年底三個月HIBOR將升至1.6厘
花旗發表亞太區銀行報告表示,美聯儲上周公布將目標利率上調75個基點、英國央行將基準利率上調25個基點至1.25厘、瑞士央行出乎預期近十五年來首次加息50個基點至負0.25厘。在公司層面,渣打集團(02888.HK)更新了旗下金融市場業務情況、匯豐控股(00005.HK)亦提供了匯豐英國的近況。該行指在行業亞太區銀行中的喜愛排序首次是香港銀行,其次是韓國銀行。 該行指投資者愈來愈擔心衰退風險。花旗表示,在已發展地區經濟的市場(例如韓國、新加坡)中,看到了類似的零售支出復甦,這可以為經濟提供一些支持,但其他一些市場正面臨更多增長挑戰。該行料中國2022年及2023年GDP增長預測各為4.2%及4.8%,料香港特區2022年及2023年GDP增長預測各為2%及3.5%。 該行料美國聯儲局聯邦基金利率至2022年年底為3.75厘、料2023年第三季達到4.25厘;該行估計香港三個月銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)至2022年年底為1.6厘(對比今年6月19日為1.3厘)、料2023年第三季達到2.6厘。
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