植耀輝: 內房股造好 恆指反覆靠穩
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(20日)假期休市,港股則個別發展,內房及物管股抽升,濠賭股及資源股則偏軟,最終恆指上升88點,收報21,163點,全日成交金額1,318億元。內房及物管股成為升市火車頭,事實上昨日成份股最大5隻股份均為內房相關股份,升幅介乎6%至15%。內需股午後亦見資金追捧,華潤啤酒(00291.HK)及農夫山泉(09633.HK)升幅便分別達到3.85%及3%。網易-S(09999.HK)則為表現最差成份股,有消息指《暗黑破壞神永生不朽》將推遲內地上線持間,成為拖累股價主因。中海油(00883.HK)亦因油價急跌,股價下跌3.6%,收報10.14元。
雖然恆指錄得升幅,但整體投資氣氛仍較審慎,始終美國聯儲局未來息口去向是一大關鍵,主席鮑威爾本周三及四將出席國會聽證會,其言論對金融市場或會有較大啟示;當然,如A股繼續有不俗表現,對港股亦會有支持。預期港股仍會維持拉鋸格局不變,於20,800點至21,500點上落,
至於內房股,昨日出現強勁反彈,或多或少是與近期內房數據有所改善有關,在多地相繼出台樓市寬鬆措施下,銷售出現改善屬合理,不過要留意下季為內房還債高峰期,預期內房投資氣氛或會再度轉弱,投資者可趁本輪反彈浪中趁高沽貨先行獲利,待回吐再作吸納。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有中海油(00883.HK)股份)
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北水放慢等待新催化劑 恆指上試10天線
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(20日)美國「六月節」假期休市,歐洲股市靠穩,市場觀察聯儲官員的發言以及利率的走勢,商品市場則走弱。另外,多間大行唱好股市,摩通(JPM.US)認為下半年應該要增持新興市場,重申增加中國持倉;貝萊德則認為歐洲銀行股受惠加息周期,估值吸引。本港方面,黑期預示恆指再於21,300點即市阻力位置爭持,北水昨日只得淨流入3億,創七天以來低位,內地疫情的變化仍然左右市況氣氛。焦點股份方面,中電(00002.HK)發盈警,由於澳洲業務EnergyAustralia遠期合約的公平價值出現大幅度不利變動,導致今年六個月錄得綜合虧損,去年同期營運盈利為46.15億元,不過需留意當合約到期時公平價值虧損將會消除。
技術上,恆指重返20天及50天線之上,目前再度挑戰10天線阻力約21,300,RSI重返50以上屬於偏強的水平,不過由於未能正式突破10天線,可以等待MACD出現牛信號再確認買入。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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