《大行報告》摩通:聚焦賭企最壞情境下現金消耗 料金沙(01928.HK)和澳博(00880.HK)最受壓
澳門特區爆發新冠疫情,並由昨日(19日)中午至本周二(21日)中午十二時進行全民核檢,摩根大通發表報告表示,今次是澳門逾兩年以來最大規模的新冠疫情,所有澳門居民都必須在三天內接受大規模檢測,學校、體育設施和餐廳就餐服務暫停,澳門邊境本身仍然開放,但離開澳門的旅客必須出示在24小時內發出的陰性檢測結果。
該行表示,受疫情影響下澳門博彩收入有可能跌至接近於零水平,雖然賭場目前仍在營運,但一旦發生此情境並不會感到驚訝的是,在疫情受控之前,料相關收入至少數周內接近於零水平,並且入境訪問量很少,該行估計消息對濠賭股可能會非常負面,但承認現時下調評級為時已晚,建議長期和有耐心的投資者可關注估值正常化後的可觀投資機會。
摩通預期市場的焦點會轉移到澳門博彩企業在最壞情況下的現金消耗和流動性狀況,該行假設在很長一段時間內收入為零下,而沒有額外資金,料澳博控股(00880.HK)和金沙中國(01928.HK)的流動性緩衝最短,均為9個月,直到2023年3月,估計永利澳門(01128.HK)、美高梅中國(02282.HK)及新濠博亞(MLCO.US)等其他營運商則擁有1.5年至2年的流動性緩衝,直到2024年年中。該行指即使在零收入環境下,料銀河娛樂(00027.HK)仍擁有60個月的流動性,屬行業流動性緩衝能力最佳的股份。總而言之,該行對澳門博彩整體的流動性情況並不太擔心,也許除了澳博之外。
該行估計銀娛、金沙中國、永利澳門、美高梅中國、澳博及新濠博亞每月現金消耗預測各為7,200萬美元、1.68億美元、9,000萬美元、6,700萬美元、8,000萬美元及1.18億美元。(wl/u)
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