天風證券料新東方在線(01797.HK)坐穩抖音電商直播龍頭 成長空間闊
新東方在線(01797.HK)今早股價反覆波動,高開2.6%後一度倒跌26.6%(曾低見21元),最新略跌幅收窄至7.3%報26.5元。新東方在線旗下「東方甄選」抖音直播間今早粉絲突破1,225萬名(對比昨日下午約1,027萬名)。
天風證券發表告表示,新東方在線旗下「東方甄選」或坐穩抖音直播龍頭電商陣營,流量傾斜有望衝擊抖系電商第一平台。該行近期持續跟蹤東方甄選總成交額(GMV)及營運情況,認為東方甄選未來在電商領域仍有較大發展空間,具體來看當前時點淘寶抖音龍頭個人主播陸續離場,背後是直播電商模式持續優化,矩陣式主播平台和品牌店播或逐步成為主力帶貨模式;各平台均在真空期大力探索。而抖音發展興趣內容電商與東方甄選無縫契合,目前抖音龍頭電商平台中東方甄選差異化標簽、料有望獲得平台更多支持,坐穩抖音電商直播龍頭。
該行預計抖音會繼續加大對內容原創及自有流量的鼓勵力度,提升用戶留存時長及復購頻次,流量扶持相關平台坐穩龍頭陣營;近幾日東方甄選各類數據持續超預期增長,在自身正確的堅持、持續提升購物體驗基礎上,充分迎合社交電商以及抖音電商當下發展選擇。
從近幾日GMV及粉絲增長看,天風證券前保守預期穩態日均GMV為3,000萬人民幣左右(近兩天日均4,000萬至5,000萬人民幣且持續增長),年GMV或在100億人民幣左右,考慮到自帶流量及資源傾斜、自有品牌佔比提升等,淨利率或在5%左右,預計年淨利5億至7億人民幣,同時中長期成長空間廣闊。該行給予新東方在線「買入」評級,但無給予目標價。
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