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惠譽評級:中資銀行經營環境將面臨壓力
惠譽評級中資銀行評級董事薛慧如表示,展望2022年,經濟前景趨弱疊加宏觀政策放鬆,中資銀行經營環境預計將面臨壓力。 薛慧如解釋,從經濟增長前景來看,房地產市場持續低迷,疫情反覆導致部分城市防控措施顯著升級,經濟活動進一步放緩。從政策導向來看,預計今年財政政策將顯著放鬆,信貸和社融增速將有所提升,準備金和貸款市場報價利率(LPR)也會進一步下降。伴隨著監管重心短期從防風險轉移至穩增長,系統槓桿率將上升,金融改革步伐可能會放慢,這將使得中資銀行經營環境面臨挑戰 薛慧如又稱,可能會將中國全球系統重要性(G-SIB)發行的總損失吸收能力(TLAC)合格高級債務工具的評級與其長期發行人違約評級等同,這主要是基於對違約風險和損失嚴重程度的評估。另認為政府很有可能提供支持以防止中國全球系統重要性銀行發行的TLAC高級債務工具發生違約,同時,政府可能會提供支持以降低高級債權人的損失嚴重程度,而次級債務工具的損失吸收能力也將為TLAC高級債務工具提供保護,因此TLAC合格高級債務工具的回收預期不會低於平均水平。 此外,惠譽評級中資銀行評級董事徐雯超指出,若疫情封控措施對經濟活動影響擴大以及貸款需求復甦滯後,中資銀行資產質素壓力或將上升。防疫管控措施已致中國多個行業在近期面臨盈利壓力。伴隨地產行業復甦滯後,上下游產業鏈及相關行業的溢出風險也給中國經濟增長帶來更多不確定性。如果房地產信貸政策大範圍放寬,則可能會給居民槓桿水平以及中資銀行的資產質素帶來更大風險。 徐雯超認為,相比大中型企業,小微企業在疫情下經營困難更為明顯。一系列支持小微企業的監管政策,一方面可減輕借款人還款負擔、在短期內緩解銀行的資產質素壓力,但從長期來看存在貸款定價偏低、不良確認延後等問題。全行業普惠小微貸款佔總貸款比例已由2018年底的8%上升至12%。人行針對普惠小微貸款的稅收優惠政策以及存款準備金率定向下調將在一定程度上抵銷貸款利率下行產生的影響。然而,若貸款規模持續擴大且伴隨授信標準放寬,則小型中資銀行所面臨的風險或將攀升。
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