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中信建投:新東方在線(01797.HK)旗下「東方甄選」近日粉絲數日增達逾百萬 料未來粉絲總數或達二千萬
新東方系持續炒作,新東方在線(01797.HK)最新飆升逾38%報23元,市值達230.17億元,而新東方-S(09901.HK)股價揚5%報18.78元。按抖音資料,新東方在線旗下「東方甄選」粉絲逾919萬人。 中信建投發表報告表示,新東方在線旗下「東方甄選」抖音直播間日新增粉絲於本周二(14日)出現向上拐點, 6月14日的日增粉絲達到183萬(前四天日均不到80萬)。上周四(9日)東方甄選的抖音直播間憑借雙語直播快速破圈,引發全民關注,從6月10日開始東方甄選粉絲、直播間在線人數以及GMV均出現爆發式增長,抖音賬號粉絲從不到100萬快速增長至6月13日的383萬,6月10日至6月13日的日均粉絲增加數量分別為77萬人、79萬人、64萬人、57萬人。6月14日,東方甄選抖音直播間粉絲數量567萬人,日增粉絲達到183萬人、出現加速向上的拐點。 6月14日,東方甄選抖音直播間GMV達到4,012萬人民幣,相較於6月10至13日的1,420萬、1,972萬、1,551萬和2,186萬元出現加速提升。此次熱度「二次發酵」主要是對於直播間「深度思想、文化底蘊」的認可。 中信建投估計後續東方甄選抖音直播間粉絲數量不到一周增至1,000萬人、未來有望達到2,000萬人。日均總成交金額(GMV)方面,以抖音平台頭部主播實時帶貨、直播第一名直播間為例,目前場均GMV在逾3,500萬元人民幣、場均銷量達到逾30萬,相較於淘寶的超級頭部直播間還有一定差距。 該行指,目前東方甄選日增粉絲數量迎來向上拐點,上調對於東方甄選直播間粉絲數量以及日均GMV 的預期。預計按照目前粉絲增長速度(日增達逾100萬人),則在未來一周東方甄選粉絲數量有望達到千萬人(原本預計需要2周)。假設按照日均GMV約3,000萬人民幣(在抖音直播間排名第二)和4,000萬人民幣(在抖音直播間排名第一)分別進行估算,東方甄選年GMV將達到110億人民幣、146億人民幣。 在此參考「交個朋友」直播間,淨利潤/GMV為3%,伴隨自營產品比例加大和客單價提升,利潤率有望提升至5%,給予預測市盈率20倍,分別對應110億及146億人民幣市值。另外,公司大學業務收入5億人民幣,按照10%淨利率,預測市盈率20倍計算,對應10億人民幣市值。樂觀情況下考慮公司在手淨現金及等價物16億人民幣,假設未來在日均GMV為3,000萬人民幣(在抖音直播間排名第二)和4,000萬(在抖音直播間排名第一)兩種假設下,新東方在線合並計算市值分別為136億人民幣及172億元人民幣。(wl/k) ~
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