花旗:預計年底三個月HIBOR升至1.6%
花旗銀行研究部香港經濟師雷智顏表示,該行預料美國聯儲局本星期將公布上調聯邦基金利率50點子,預計美國2022全年加息275點子,預計三個月本港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)在2022年底會升至1.6%,到2023年達2.6%,相信銀行需要香港經濟有穩健復甦時,才會上調最優惠利率(Prime Rate),預料香港銀行會在第四季才會將Prime rate上調25點子。
雷智顏認為,金管局隨時可以透過外匯基金票據釋放資金,因此有足夠緩衝令銀行體系結餘不會大跌。對於有意見認為港元應改為與特別提款權(SDR)籃子貨幣掛鉤,她認為,這個做法無助解決對地緣政治擔憂和應對香港萬一被剔出使用環球銀行金融電信協會(SWIFT)系統,因為SDR籃子有80%仍然是西方國家貨幣。至於對港元改為與人民幣掛鉤的建議,她認為做法屬中長線方案,有助應對地緣政治問題,但基本法規定港元須能自由兌換,相信在人民幣實現自由兌換之前,港元改掛人民幣方案不能實行,應該維持現有的聯繫匯率制度。
雷智顏相信,加息週期將影響投資樓市意欲,對置業人士構成壓力,維持2月時預測2022年本港樓價下跌8%-10%。她認為,香港不會嚴謹收緊表列處所營業時間,否則對勞工市場會有好大壓力。該行料2022年香港實質經濟增長2%。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.