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《大行報告》麥格理:水泥行業出現價格戰 降海螺水泥(00914.HK)及潤泥(01313.HK)目標價
麥格理發表研究報告指出,內地水泥行業出現價格戰,且降價幅度超過預期,專家認為龍頭企業調整市場策略的關鍵原因,在於其市場份額大幅流失,特別是華東地區公司的銷量損失最大,與該行預期一致。專家預期,水泥業的每噸毛利將於十四五期間結構性惡化,直至行業進一步整合,料每噸毛利將由去年的150元人民幣,跌至今年的80至100元人民幣,而目前現價價格為每噸60元人民幣,另料2023至2025年穩定在80元人民幣水平。 該行將海螺水泥(00914.HK)的2022至2024財年每股盈利預測,分別下調9%、13%及13%,主要由於公司較低的產品均價及較高的銷售和管理開支,另對其H股目標價由35元下調至30元。潤泥(01313.HK)方面,該行將其2022至2024財年每股盈利預測分別下調4%、7%及7%,雖然估計華南地區市場集中度較高,水泥減價較少,但認為其產品均價較低,目標價由5.09元下調至5.07元。
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