天風:港股互聯網Q2迎業績拐點,關注美團、京東和網易
穩經濟政策疊加消費復甦,持續關注互聯網平臺二季度基本面拐點
國務院印發《紮實穩住經濟的一攬子政策措施》
5月31日,國務院印發《紮實穩住經濟的一攬子政策措施》提出,科學合理把握首次公開發行股票並上市和再融資常態化,支持內地企業在香港上市,依法依規推進符合條件的平臺企業赴境外上市。同時強調出臺支持平臺經濟規範健康發展的具體措施,穩定平臺企業及其共生中小微企業的發展預期。
上海進入全面恢復正常生產生活秩序階段
6月1日起,上海全市全面恢復全市正常生產生活秩序階段。上海市內地面公交、軌道交通全網恢復基本運行。終止施行機動車電子通行證制度。購物中心、超市賣場、便利店、藥店等商業網點有序恢復線下營業。
美團發佈2022年第一季度財報,一季度營收同比增長25%
美團本週發佈2022年第一季度及全年財報,財報顯示,該公司第一季度營收462.7億元,同比增長25%;美團第一季度到店、酒店及旅遊收入76億元,同比增長15.8%。淨虧損57.0億元人民幣,調整後淨虧損35.9億元人民幣。總營收與虧損均好於彭博一致預期。
國務院印發《紮實穩住經濟的一攬子政策措施》,強調堅持穩定經濟發展,出臺一系列支持企業融資與經營的舉措,繼續釋放對平臺經濟的有利信號。上海6月1日起全面恢復正常生活生產秩序,多種線下消費場所開始恢復營業。其他省市疫情在管控下趨於穩定,有利於此後各大消費終端場景復甦。多家互聯網企業財報表現好於彭博預期。快手22Q1虧損持續收窄,超彭博預期。阿裏巴巴、百度、拼多多營收和盈利均超彭博預期。美團一季度財報收入/利潤均高於彭博一致預期,顯示其在疫情條件下仍有足夠韌性。
我們認爲互聯網板塊基本面大概率於二季度築底,業績能見度逐步確認將提振市場信心。後續隨宏觀環境改善以及企業高質量增長策略兌現,收入增速與經營槓桿改善逐步共振有望推動業績彈性復甦。我們認爲,當前已進入板塊中長線配置區間,建議持續關注。後續持續關注局部疫情控制情況、企業降本減虧策略兌現。
建議關注:1)在穩經濟的背景下,部分地方政府開始陸續發放消費券,本地服務和電商零售企業或可在穩增長、穩就業中發揮平臺價值,建議關注有望隨局部疫情減弱,基本面邊際修復的平臺,如美團、京東、拼多多;2)遊戲行業供給改善疊加“宅家紅利”,短期基本面韌性較強,關注網易、騰訊;3)線上廣告行業靜待需求改善,關注結構性份額增長的平臺或降本增效顯著,如快手、嗶哩嗶哩等;4)受益於國內穩增長與地產政策放鬆,基本面有望持續改善的平臺,如貝殼等;5)其中,動態估值較歷史水平折讓明顯/降本增效顯著,如阿裏巴巴、百度。
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