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《大行報告》中金:內地水泥業面臨需求和成本端雙重擠壓 關鍵矛盾在於需求能否如期回暖
阿思達克 06-06 14:25
中金發表報告指,需求弱勢下,內地水泥業預備迎接漫長淡季,關鍵矛盾在於需求能否如期回暖。報告指,在地產下行、基建資金到位時滯、疫情封控、梅雨天氣的多重影響下,今年夏季水泥淡季可能由5月延續至8月,較往年明顯拉長,需求下滑幅度或亦明顯較深。 不過,中金認為,行業仍有望通過有效的錯峰生產以及良性的價格競爭進行一定自我調節。同時,部分區域小企業在淡季可能盈利微薄,主動減產停產,有助於控制旺季開端時行業庫存。此外,一些能耗偏緊張的省份,亦不排除企業在旺季進行常規性錯峰生產的可能性。 中金指,如下半年伴隨著基建項目落地加趕工需求釋放,水泥需求如期改善,認為行業的供需矛盾有望大幅緩和,價格有望快速進入修復通道,因而淡季中的價格競爭的持續性和烈度可能並非如市場預期的一樣悲觀,建議關注華潤水泥(01313.HK)。
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