中信證券：輪動慢漲主行情正臨近
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究
策略聚焦：穩經濟總動員，主行情正臨近
步入6月，在疫情得到有效控制後，穩經濟的一攬子政策預計將集中起效，海外擾動壓力最大的階段已經過去，並開始逐步緩和，中期修復的主行情正在臨近，預計仍以輪動慢漲為特徵並將持續數月，堅定佈局四大主線。首先，從內部環境來看，二季度以來，穩增長政策全面鋪開，但疫情反覆導致政策合力難以得到釋放，預計6月全國範圍內疫情會有根本性改觀，政策蓄力後迎來集中起效窗口，經濟已經出現修復跡象，6月將開始進入加速修復階段。其次，從外部環境來看，海外通脹重壓下，中美貿易環境或有階段性改善，美聯儲加息預期頂點已過，美國經濟衰退風險不斷升温可能會進一步緩解加息預期，俄烏衝突日漸明朗，對全球商品市場預期衝擊最大的階段已經過去。最後，A股市場流動性近期明顯改善，當前絕對收益投資者倉位仍在相對低位，隨着內外部環境加速改善，中期修復的主行情正在臨近，堅定佈局現代化基建、地產、復工復產和消費修復四大主線。
配置上，全年維度，建議圍繞現代化基建以及地產佈局，基建領域重點關注低估值建築龍頭、電網、數據中心和雲基礎設施，地產領域重點關注優質開發商、物管和建材。季度維度，建議積極增配復工復產的相關行業，重點關注智能汽車及零部件、半導體、光伏風電設備等。月度維度，建議聚焦消費修復相關的航空、酒店、免税、食飲、百貨商超，在規模性疫情消退、市場主體紓困和消費刺激等一攬子政策下，這些行業也將迎來階段性恢復。我們預計這四條預期最為清晰的主線將呈現輪動慢漲特點，隨着中期修復行情交替上行。
大類資產配置：立體看待A股配置價值
隨着海外利空逐漸消散、國內環境不斷向好，從中長期看，A股的配置價值正在不斷提升，當下是佈局的良好時機，但經濟下行壓力猶存、企業盈利底尚未出現，因此，A股反彈的過程可能出現波折。在行業選擇方面，建議在適當超配大盤價值的基礎上，圍繞以地產和基建為代表的穩增長領域、疫情衝擊導致基本面處於低位的領域及受成本抑制的中游製造這三個領域進行佈局。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
