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《大行報告》中金:北京及上海等地區逐步復工復產 料內銀業績逐步改善
中金發表研究報告指,北京及上海等地區近日逐步復工復產,預期金融活動將企穩回升,帶動內銀業績逐步改善。該行指出,疫情影響下上海及北京4月份社會消費品零售總額分別下跌14.2%及3.5%,上海固定資產投資亦下跌11.3%,信貸需求處於低位,但相信情況已於4月至5月見底,5月份製造業PMI按月上升2.2個百分點至49.6,反映出經濟預期可能逐步回暖。 中金預計,內地5月信貸投放將按月改善,6月亦將延續改善態勢,關注擴表節奏與中收科目恢復,認為疫情對資產質量影響整體可控,復產復工背景下「穩增長」政策有望落地。 中金較傾向規模及盈利持續高增的區域性銀行,例如江蘇銀行(600919.SH)、常熟銀行(601128.SH)、杭州銀行(600926.SH)、寧波銀行(002142.SZ)等;同時亦看好財富管理成長性較好的招商銀行(03968.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK),以及受惠於內地樓市支持政策而可能出現估值修復的平安銀行(000001.SZ)及興業銀行(601166.SH)。
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