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瑞銀汪濤預計內地5月經濟活動邊際改善 最差時期應已過去
阿思達克 06-02 14:20
瑞銀表示,隨著4月中旬以來疫情衝擊有所緩解,5月內地統計局製造業PMI上升2.2個百分點,同時服務業PMI反彈7.1個百分點。瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究部預計即將公布的5月經濟資料將顯示大部分經濟活動的按年增速改善,但整體動能仍比較疲弱。 瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,近期中國政府已經加大政策支持力度,預計未來有望繼續加碼,包括增加留底退稅,支撐基建投資,以及更明確地進一步放鬆房地產政策。然而,迄今為止宣布的政策支持仍比較溫和,認為目前計劃出台的政策支持不足以完全緩解經濟下行壓力。 對於即將公布的5月宏觀資料,汪濤估計5月工業生產按年跌幅可能收窄至1.2%;社會消費品零售按年跌幅可能收窄至8%;房地產銷售跌幅小幅收窄,整體固定資產投資按年增速可能有所改善。 汪濤近期將中國今年GDP增長預測從此前4.2%下調至3%,預計第二季整體GDP按季大幅下跌(按季下跌8%,按年增長1.4%),同時下半年的反彈力度和速度明顯弱於2020年。(ek/w) ~
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