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《大行報告》麥格理首予海螺水泥(00914.HK)及華潤水泥(01313.HK)「跑輸大市」評級
麥格理發表報告指,在海螺水泥(00914.HK)新董事長上任後,其作為中國第二大水泥生產商海螺已恢復市場份額戰略,標誌著產業聯盟的終結,並且隨即展開價格戰,認為其商業模式的變化及潛在風險遠未反映在價格中,因此首予海螺水泥和華潤水泥(01313.HK)「跑輸大市」評級,目標價分別為35元和5.09元。 麥格理認為,與聯盟前的周期不同,市場份額戰略對海螺水泥來說不是一場輕鬆的戰鬥,因為所有水泥生產商在多年來獲取強勁的自由現金流之後,都擁有更強勁的資產負債表,但這是海螺水泥恢復定價權和整合行業的明確路徑,亦可以通過減輕建築工程的成本來幫助更廣泛的經濟復甦。 麥格理估計,鑑於政府推動建設基礎設施、去年下半年為非高峰期和有低基數效應,預計今年下半年的供需動態將從今年第二季的低谷略有改善,然而房地產市場疲軟和激烈的市場份額競爭,可能會限制利潤復甦,導致今年水泥價格低於預期。
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