《大行報告》花旗下調本港今年GDP增長預測至2% 料明年增長3.5%
花旗發表亞太區經濟前景報告,香港經濟於今年首季陷低谷後正持續改善,憑藉香港更高的新冠疫苗接種水平(約87%人口已接種第二劑疫苗)和已康復人士帶來的「群體免疫」效應,該行相信即使本港出現第六波新冠疫情,相信香港社會也無需回到直接「封城」的限制社交距離措施狀態。
該行下調對香港今年GDP增長預測0.2個百分點,由2.2%降至2%,以反映該行下調對美國及中國今年GDP預測,並指本港更廣泛的經濟復甦將取決於香港能否重啟與內地的免檢疫通關、以及放寬國際旅行限制。該行維持香港2023年GDP增長預測3.5%
在美聯儲進取加息的背景下,花旗估計香港資本外流可能會繼續。香港金管局在5月11日至16日期間以近176億港元承接港元沽盤。鑑於美聯儲進一步加息預期和本地股市表現不佳,未來仍可能會繼續觸發港元弱方兌換保證。資本外流可能會壓低香港銀行體系結餘的港元流動性(截至5月24日為3,200億港元),並促使金管局從外匯基金票據釋放更多流動性(規模約1.2萬億港元)。
該行認為在需要時,金管局將會釋放在2021年9月至2022年2月期間通過額外發行外匯基金票據所吸收的1,200億港元流動性,貨幣基礎仍然由外匯儲備提供十足支持。
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