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《大行報告》瑞銀料中國將有更多地方政府出臺鼓勵消費政策 補貼規模或超2020年
瑞銀髮表中國資本市場策略報告表示,內地政府對經濟政策支持力度自5月中以來持續加大,市場對股市的投資情緒有所回升。中國國務院於5月23日的常務會議決定,在經濟下行壓力加大的情況下,出臺一攬子穩經濟措施。主要政策包括額外退稅超1,400億人民幣(全年累計退稅2.64萬億人民幣),部份行業的養老金及社保繳費延期至2022年年底(今年延期繳費達到3,200億人民幣)。 該行認爲,此次會議向各級政府發出「經濟發展是解決中國一切問題的基礎和關鍵」的信號,旨在以積極的政策信號提振市場信心,確保地方更加重視穩定經濟增長。區域政策方面,深圳出臺了30條促進消費的措施,包括對家電和消費電子產品價格給予15%的補貼等,對新能源汽車消費者每輛車給予最高1萬人民幣的補貼。該行相信,更多的區域和地方層面的消費政策將很快出臺,補貼可能會比2020年更加慷慨。 監於近期內地宏觀政策支持力度加大,宏觀流動性條件相對寬鬆,瑞銀認爲市場估值或已於年內觸底。企業盈利方面,該行預計A股將在今年第二季度再次錄得盈利按年負增長,並可能觸及年內低點。在未來一段時間和第二季度財報季的前後時間,市場可能會下調企業盈利預測。但該行認爲,市場對A股一旦在本輪盈利預測下調基本完成之後,機會將會出現。 此外,該行亦列出近期十隻錄最多「南向資金」淨流入的港股,包括比亞迪(01211.HK)(淨流入12.89億港元)、長汽(02333.HK)(淨流入11.7億港元)、中海油(00883.HK)(淨流入34.33億港元)、兗礦能源(01171.HK)(淨流入6.93億港元)、李寧(02331.HK)(淨流入17.28億港元)、廣汽(02238.HK)(淨流入2.36億港元)、美團(03690.HK)(淨流入71.31億港元)、福耀玻璃(03606.HK)(淨流入2.04億港元)、藥明生物(02269.HK)(淨流入17.64億港元)、中國燃氣(00384.HK)(淨流入2.94億港元)。(wl/u) ~
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