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植耀輝: 美股續反彈勢頭改善 港股有望跟隨
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,憧憬息口見頂以及部分零售股最新公佈之季績表現勝預期下,美股上週延續近期反彈勢頭,道指一週累升6.2%,結束連續八星期下跌之劣勢;標普500指數及納指亦分別累升6.5%及6.8%。今日(30日)爲美國陣亡將士記念日假期,美股休市一天。不過本週較後時間將公佈就業數據表現,料會對美股去向有更多啓示。 港股方面,上週五在科技股造好下大幅反彈,恆指大升581點或2.9%,收報20,697點,不過全周計則仍微跌19點。恆指能收復大部分失地,主要歸功於阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)及匯控(00005.HK),前者上週五(27日)大升12.2%,單一股份貢獻155點,全周計則上升3.35%。至於匯控一週計升幅亦達到7.23%,爲第二佳表現之成份股,而升幅最大則是累升7.72%之中海油(00883.HK)。另一油股中石油(00857.HK)亦升5.63%。 值得一提的是,四隻準藍籌上週表現各異,東方海外(00316.HK)表現最佳,累升13.7%兼創新高,中芯國際(00981.HK)亦升6%,至於爆冷入圍之中國宏橋(01378.HK)則升近3.4%。不過中升(00881.HK)表現則相對失色,一週累跌1.6%,至於被剔除之瑞聲(02018.HK)則續試底,一週收報15.74元,累跌超過一成。 至於後市展望,反彈目標暫仍先看21,000點水平,能否突破此水平之關鍵有二。其一爲科技股能否維持反彈勢頭,另外則須留意內地會否有更多刺激經濟措施消息。若有更多相關消息配合,則恆指始有望突破21,000點及挑戰更高水平。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有中海油(00883.HK)及東方海外(00316.HK)股份) ********* 期結日先觀望恆指能否站穩50天線阻力 耀才研究部稱,上週五(27日)美股三大指數全線向上,科技股表現最好。美國4月個人消費支出按月增0.9%,較上月的1.1%回落,市場憧憬通脹回落,聯儲局可能於6月及7月各加息50基點後,美銀預期聯儲將於9月份停止加息。展望本週,重點關注非農就業數據以及工資增長,以及ISM製造業指數,均爲經濟景氣帶來前瞻性啓示。港股方面,受外圍股市帶動,黑期預示恆指將升近300點,挑戰50天線即20,900點,今日期指結算,加上市場靜候美團(03690.HK)的業績,要先觀望50天線能否站穩才考慮增持倉位。 技術上,恆指於20天線水平再度找到支持,目前仍未擺脫於19,800至20,900點的上落格局,以2月份高位25,000點起計,恆指仍然受壓於一條下降軌中,恆指需要升穿50天線才能打破浪低於浪的走勢。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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