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《大行報告》中金:內地減汽車購置稅 刺激主體由地方向中央切換 保守估拉動需求5%
中金發表研究報告指出,國常會進一步部署穩經濟一籃子措施,提及汽車行業政策包括階段性減徵部分乘用車購置稅600億元人民幣(下同),以及對貨車車貸支持銀行年內延期還本付息等。其中,購置稅減徵對乘用車需求刺激力度大,該行預期有望顯著提振燃油車銷量,對沖疫情不利影響。 該行認為,內地穩汽車消費提上日程,政策預期不斷加強。截至5月21日,發布補貼刺激政策的地區合計乘用車上牌量佔比約為30%。大部分地區補貼車型向新能源側重,通常按照購車金額進行階梯式補貼,單車補貼金額為數千元不等。此次國常會提及購置稅減徵政策,該行認為由刺激主體由地方向中央切換,刺激對象向燃油車賽道傾斜,單車優惠金額增加,政策力度大幅加強。 此外,中金指內地汽車刺激政策工具箱豐富,購置稅減徵是對需求拉動效果最顯著的政策。中國於2009至2010年和2015至2017年實施過兩輪購置稅減徵政策,針對1.6L及以下車型,依次兌現5%及2.5%的稅率優惠,該行測算兩輪政策對銷量拉動規模均在500萬輛(年均200萬輛以上),對當年需求拉動幅度在30%及15%。參考是次600億元財政支出上限,按照14萬元單車均價,若購置稅減半,預計惠及約1,000萬輛車。實際拉動效果與優惠力度、政策持續時長掛鉤,參考歷史情況,該行認為即使政策僅持續到年底,保守情況下仍有望拉動百萬輛級別銷量,對需求拉動幅度在5%。 該行建議關注自主品牌車企包括長安汽車(000625.SZ)、長城汽車(02333.HK)及吉利汽車(00175.HK)等;零部件如福耀玻璃(03606.HK)等。
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