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郭家耀: 憂滯脹港股或下試19,500 觀望降LPR谷內房復甦
安里資產管理董事總經理郭家耀稱,美股周二(24日)個別發展,科技股業績表現失望,加上經濟數據向下,拖累大市早段急挫,納指跌幅最為顯著,收市仍維持超過2%跌幅,標普500指數走勢亦向下,道指則拗腰向上,收市錄得溫和升幅。美元走勢回落,美國十年期債息下跌至2.75厘水平,金價表現向好,油價高位有回吐。港股預託證券個別發展,預料大市早段跟隨外圍低開。 內地股市走勢向下,滬綜指收市下跌2.4%,滬深兩市成交額略為增加。 港股跟隨內地股市向下,指數一度失守20,000點大關,尾市跌幅略為收窄,大市成交保持清淡。外圍走勢繼續波動,投資者憂慮滯脹風險,影響企業盈利,預料港股表現轉趨反覆,指數或下試19,500點支持,上方阻力在20,500點附近。 另人民銀行日前下調5年期以上貸款市場報價利率,從4.6%下調至4.45%,大幅下降15個基點,超出市場預期。今次行動顯示中央對扶持房地產的決心。隨著5年期LPR的下調,部分地區房貸利率也有望下調,有利於降低剛需和改善型需求購房成本,提振商品房需求。 人行及銀保監會早前已發布關於調整差別化住房信貸政策有關問題的通知,對於貸款購買普通自住房的居民家庭,首套住房商業性個人住房貸款利率下限調整為不低於相應期限LPR減20個基點,二套住房商業性個人住房貸款利率政策下限按現行規定執行。另外,各地因城施策的措施陸續出台,顯示地方政府非常積極配合中央政策,加速房地產市場復甦。市場觀望整體銷售何時見底回升,以確認復甦步伐。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,沒持有上述股份)~
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