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經濟衰退即將來臨?有5個主要因素幫助投資者判斷
uSMART盈立智投 05-24 15:37

摘要:聯邦基金期貨市場的數據顯示,美聯儲預計將在2023年初之前將短期利率提高到3%左右,然後再暫停。財政刺激計劃不再重複,美聯儲剛剛開始收縮其資產負債表,這意味着它將不再每月購買大量美國國債和抵押貸款支持證券。最重要的是,美國經濟增長在從疫情衝擊中迅速反彈後放緩,回到趨勢增長水平並不一定意味着衰退。

當美聯儲讓利率處於“中性”時,經濟衰退往往不會發生。股市在4月和5月初出現下跌,部分原因是市場參與者感覺到經濟衰退的風險正在上升。讓我們來分析影響衰退概率的五個關鍵因素。

1.美聯儲將利率調整至更高的水平:只有當美聯儲將利率調整到非常嚴格的範圍時,衰退才更有可能發生。

2.美聯儲大規模縮減資產負債表:在大流行期間,美聯儲購買債券,爲大規模財政刺激提供資金,但之前的情況一去不復返。正如美聯儲購買公債支撐股市一樣,美聯儲縮減資產負債表對股市不利。

3.投入和工資成本上升:許多企業可能面臨利潤率壓縮,原因是投入成本上升,以及爲追趕通脹而不斷上漲的工資。利潤率壓縮對公司股票估值來說是一個挑戰,但這並不一定意味着衰退。

4.高油價:俄羅斯烏克蘭衝突導致油價和汽油價格飆升。這一因素導致衰退風險上升和運輸成本上升,但迄今爲止,美國經濟正在應對能源價格上升所帶來的巨大沖擊。

5.中國的經濟走勢:隨着中國經濟增長放緩,某些大宗商品的價格開始暴漲。但是中國的疲軟更有可能反映在人民幣貶值上,而不是導致美國經濟衰退的主要原因。

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