《即日市評》恆指再跌 內需及濠賭股有沽壓
受科網股跌勢拖累,港股今日持續向下。摩根大通(JPM.US)上調全年利息收入展望,美股道指及納指昨晚各升2%及1.6%;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至2.797釐,美匯指數跌至102.04,道指期貨最新跌300點或0.94%,納指期貨最新跌1.9%,摩通亞洲區貨幣指數跌0.24%至103.57,人民幣即期收跌37點報6.6671兌一美元。國務院公佈實施六方面33項一攬子措施穩經濟,增加退稅逾1,400億元人民幣;但市場觀望北京疫情,有券商下調中國今年GDP增長預測,上證綜指今日跌75點或2.4%收3,070點,深證成指跌3.3%,滬深兩市成交額共9,904億人民幣。
恆指低開49點,初段曾倒升39點一度高見20,509點,其後再度向下,尾市曾跌480點一度低見19,989點。大市全日跌357點或1.75%,收20,112點,連跌兩日(累跌605點或2.9%);國指今日跌139點或1.98%,收6,883點;恆生科技指數跌145點或3.48%,收4,032點。大市全日成交總額1,136.39億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入19.02億及3.84億元人民幣。美團(03690.HK)股價走低4.8%,收市後公佈首季業績的快手(01024.HK)股價跌3.9%。內需股亦下跌,九毛九(09922.HK)跌5.1%,蒙牛(02319.HK)下滑4.1%。
【內需股走疲 汽車股反覆】
部份汽車股高開後升幅收窄,吉利(00175.HK)今早高開近10%後升福收窄,收市升3.5%,長汽(02333.HK)高開13.4%後亦升幅收窄,收市漲5.1%。就國務院常務會議公佈推出6方面33項具體措施穩住經濟基本盤,其中包括階段性減徵部分乘用車購置稅600億元人民幣等,花旗發報告估計措施足以支持內燃機(ICE)車購置稅稅率減半(從目前的10%降至5%),期限爲1.5年。花旗認爲,若今年6月上旬開始實施這一刺激措施,將給中國內燃機汽車行業帶來200萬至250萬的增量需求,是一個重大而積極的驚喜,預計吉利和長汽最受益於此次刺激措施。
摩根士丹利發表報告指,內地當局計劃階段性下調部分乘用車購置稅,涉及600億元人民幣,爲支持經濟的稅收減免措施,雖然措施細節尚未出臺,但預期市場反應正面。不過大摩指出,在目前嚴峻的宏觀背景下,政策對汽車行業的貢獻仍存在不確定性,相信長城汽車、吉利等本地品牌的內燃引擎車可從中受惠。
【跌股千二隻 濠賭股受壓】
港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率爲11比29(上日16比22),下跌股份1,247只(跌幅2.8%),恆指成份股今日7只股份上升,下跌股份54只,升跌比率爲11比82(上日爲21比61);大市今日錄沽空193.93億元,佔可沽空股份成交額970.74億的近20%(上日爲20.963%)。
濠賭股捱沽,金沙中國(01928.HK)及銀河娛樂(00027.HK)全日股價分別下挫7.5%及5.2%。國家移民管理局官員昨表示不鼓勵個人出國旅遊觀光、訪朋探友,非必要非緊急不出境。有澳門旅遊業者表示,下半年召開中共二十大,料此前難以開放團客出境遊,但期望國家可開放個別省市的團隊訪澳,以及爭取港澳於8月後通關。
裏昂發表報告指,經過首季的疲弱表現後,澳門博彩業近期復甦前景仍黯淡。該行現時預計行業復甦將於明年農曆新年期間開始,並於明年第二季出現更明顯的提升。因此,裏昂將澳門博彩業今明兩年賭收預測分別下調11%及10%,稅息折舊及攤銷前盈利(EBITDA)預測更下調64%及21%。至於2024年的看法基本保持不變,僅將賭收及EBITDA預測分別下調3%及1%,該行現時預期行業中場業務在2024年第三季會正常化。(wl/u)
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