惠譽:內房開發商外部融資仍將受限 料今年房地產銷售最多跌三成
評級機構惠譽預期,2022年剩餘時間內中資房地產開發商的銀行和非銀融資仍將受限。由於金融機構普遍趨避風險,故疲弱的房地產銷售在拖累內部融資恢復步伐的同時,會進而制約著外部融資復甦。今年首四個月,全國房地產銷售按年下滑30%,4月份亦按年縮減47%;惠譽預測今年全年將下跌25%至30%。
人行於5月15日將首套住房基準貸款利率下調20個基點,但惠譽認為,這可能只會略微提振市場情緒。
披露數據顯示,惠譽授評中資銀行的房地產貸款不良率自2019年底的0.8%躍升至2021年的1.9%,且惠譽預計不良率將進一步升高。大部分銀行已降低對開發商的貸款敞口,部分原因是監管機構對銀行房地產貸款設置上限。人行數據顯示,2022年首季全國銀行業房地產開發貸款餘額按年減少1.3%,這是2007年以來首次下降。
考慮到房地產行業日益艱難的處境,銀行業監管機構可能會對未能改善其「三道紅線」指標的開發商略微放寬貸款政策,但惠譽預期銀行仍將對向規模較小、項目位於低線城市的開發商放貸持謹慎態度。
此外,非銀融資規模亦受到制約;中國信托業協會數據顯示,2021年房地產相關資金信托的資產管理規模按年銳減22.7%,創2010年以來最大年度降幅。
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