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惠譽:疫情影響或令中資銀行面臨更高風險
惠譽評級表示,隨着新冠疫情相關防控措施對經濟活動造成影響,中資銀行面臨的資產質素壓力也在上升。 上海等數個地區實施的防疫管控措施已明顯影響當地經濟活動。惠譽已將2022年中國經濟增長預測,從之前的4.8%下調至4.3%。惠譽預計,中國的「動態清零」防疫政策可能將持續至2023年。因此,如果管控措施未能迅速遏制新一輪疫情爆發,或者放鬆限制的時間表被推遲,惠譽經濟增長預測仍將面臨下調可能。 自3月以來,防疫管控措施已抑制了商業活動和貸款需求。2022年初至2022年4月末,銀行系統整體貸款增長放緩,增速爲4.7%,而且新增貸款主要由基礎設施相關貸款、綠色貸款以及短期貼現票據構成。同期,住房抵押貸款僅增加1%,而短期消費貸款則縮減4%。 惠譽預期政府將出臺更多寬鬆政策爲經濟助力,例如進一步下調貸款市場報價利率(5月20日,五年期貸款市場報價利率下調15個基點)和存款準備金率,以及小微企業借款人延期還本付息政策等。此外,人民銀行於5月15日將首套房貸利率下限下調20個基點,此舉應有助於提振購房者信心。 防疫管控措施已致中國多個行業在近期面臨盈利壓力。惠譽認爲,若2022年疫情持續且造成長期嚴重的影響,則工程建設行業因流動性緊張帶來的衝擊將尤爲突出。惠譽認爲,目前來看該行業的訂單總體處於穩健水平,惠譽預計資金不會顯着影響項目實施。然而,工程建設活動已因疫情受到抑制——很可能是由於防疫管控措施令營運難度加大,現金流也因此未能得到釋放。 中國工程建設企業收取的工程首付款通常僅佔其項目營收的一小部分,且在項目竣工收取剩餘工程款之前須自籌大部分建設資金。此外,小型工程建設企業(尤其是民營企業)往往難以獲得通常要求承包方具備特殊資質的基礎設施項目合同,因此它們更易受到房地產行業下行的影響。目前,中國房地產行業仍持續承壓——惠譽預計房地產銷售勢頭最快僅從2022年下半年有所改善。 防疫管控措施放寬或令工程建設步伐加快,但若管控措施持續時間超過數月,則隨着冬季的到來,工程建設活動回暖將面臨挑戰。受此影響,工程建設企業的流動性壓力或加劇。 惠譽授評銀行對工程建設企業的風險敞口不盡相同,這類企業在銀行貸款總額中的佔比一般爲2%-4%,其披露的2021年末不良貸款率大多低於2%。同時,若個別銀行對該行業的放貸更多來自大型國企,則相關風險更小——儘管這方面未有詳細的公開信息。然而,若疫情防控限制措施對經濟的影響比惠譽基準假設更爲嚴重,則惠譽認爲,建築工程貸款及其他易受影響貸款類別的資產質素將面臨更大程度的壓力(如房地產開發貸款和消費貸款),這可能縮窄惠譽對銀行資產質素和資本充足水平現有評分的緩衝空間。
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