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摩通:LPR下調對招商銀行、平安銀行影響相對較小

摩根大通發表報吿指,內地銀行將五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調15個基點至4.45%,一年期則保持不變。雖然此或會輕微刺激按揭貸款需求,但該行認為對銀行盈利的淨影響是負面。

該行表示,利率下調對今年盈利的影響因銀行而異,取決於按揭貸款重新定價安排,估計建行(0939.HK)和郵儲銀行(1658.HK)在今年的影響可能最小,因兩行的按揭貸款在每年1月1日重新定價。

摩通的分析顯示,按揭貸款利率下調將分別拖累明年淨利息收益率和盈利分別2.3個基點和2%,而招行(3968.HK)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)所受影響料會低於同業。而郵儲銀行估計所受負面影響更大,但可部分被定期存款利率下調的利好所抵銷。因此,按揭貸款利率下調並未改變摩通對郵儲銀行的偏好,維持對其股份“增持”評級及目標價7.2港元。

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