《大行報告》瑞信:下調5年期LPR對內銀股的影響中性至略微正面
瑞信發表研究報告指出,內地5年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調15點子,至4.45釐,爲繼一月以來第二次下調,是自2019年8月以來最大減幅,有關減幅較該行預期降息10點子更大,同時超出市場預期。至於1年期LPR維持3.7釐不變。
該行指出,內地下調5年期LPR,旨在刺激長期投資、房地產銷售及減少借款人的利率負擔,以緩解最近幾個月因疫情爆發而放緩的經濟。該行相信對內銀股的影響中性至輕微正面,根據敏感性測試,估計該行所覆蓋的銀行淨息差將下降6點子,但實際影響或會更溫和,因有關壓力可能會持續至2023年。
此外,該行認爲貸款需求不足和潛在的質量惡化,是內銀業近幾個月以來的主要憂慮。如固定資產投資及住房需求增強,將改善銀行資產結構,對淨息差影響正面。至於還款壓力更輕以及更高的經濟活戶,都會降低信貸成本。不過,有關的政策效果需於未來一至兩個月檢驗。
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