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中信證券:四川鋰礦拍賣高價成交或將刺激板塊反彈

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:敖翀、拜俊飛、商力

斯諾威礦業股權拍賣高溢價成交凸顯了當前鋰行業的高景氣度和鋰資源爭奪的激烈程度。鋰礦成為制約鋰供應增長的核心環節,礦價的持續走高對鋰價形成支撐,鋰價有望在年中止跌反彈。建議圍繞鋰資源自給率和業績持續性兩條主線選擇標的,推薦贛鋒鋰業和鹽湖股份,建議關注天齊鋰業和永興材料。

根據財聯社報道,5月21日,在京東拍賣平台舉行的成都興能新材料股份有限公司持有的雅江縣斯諾威礦業發展有限公司54.2857%的股權拍賣以20.0億元價格成交。我們點評如下:

拍賣標的為四川核心鋰礦資產之一。

本次拍賣的標的物斯諾威礦業擁有的德扯弄巴鋰礦是四川省開發程度靠前的鋰礦項目之一,根據《四川省雅江縣德扯弄巴鋰礦、石英巖礦詳查探礦權評估報吿》,該礦保有Li2O資源儲量為29.3萬噸,摺合碳酸鋰當量為72.4萬噸,屬於特大型鋰礦。德扯弄巴鋰礦位於甲基卡礦區,與融捷股份的甲基卡134號礦脈和天齊鋰業的措拉鋰礦相鄰,周邊還有X03和木絨鋰礦等新發現礦山,是四川乃至亞洲鋰礦資源分佈最豐富的區域之一。

斯諾威礦業自身情況複雜,拍賣成交價溢價明顯。

斯諾威礦業持有的德扯弄巴鋰礦探礦權已於2021年6月過期,目前正在辦理保留工作。斯諾威礦業歷史上經歷多次股權變更,預計未來探礦權保留和採礦權申請工作複雜。根據財聯社報道,若考慮債權金額,本次拍賣的斯諾威礦業54.3%的股權總對價將達到約29億元,摺合單噸碳酸鋰交易價格達到約7380元。這一交易對價遠超2021年以來鋰行業其他收併購案例中的價格,溢價情況顯著。

高溢價凸顯當前鋰資源爭奪的激烈程度。

斯諾威礦業的高溢價成交顯示出在鋰價處於歷史高位的背景下,鋰資源爭奪空前激烈。海外礦業開發環境日趨複雜和疫情等因素的影響下,中國本土鋰資源的價值凸顯,相關資產的收併購價格不斷提升。鋰資源項目爭奪加劇體現了產業界對鋰需求前景的長期看好。

鋰礦短缺制約鋰供應增長,對鋰價形成支撐。

2022年一季度,澳洲鋰礦產量連續第二個季度出現環比下降,鋰精礦供應緊張趨勢不改,成為制約鋰供應增長的核心環節。此外在Pilbara鋰精礦拍賣價格持續走高以及本次四川鋰礦拍賣高溢價成交等因素的刺激下,我們預計鋰礦價格上漲將持續推高鋰鹽生產成本。5月以來國內碳酸鋰價格止跌企穩,在多重因素的刺激下,我們預計價格有望在近期出現反彈,鋰價全年預計維持高位運行。

風險因素:鋰價下跌的風險;鋰價過高影響下游需求;企業高價收購鋰資源項目未來可能出現資產減值的風險。

投資策略:斯諾威礦業股權拍賣高溢價成交凸顯了當前鋰行業的高景氣度和鋰資源爭奪的激烈程度。鋰礦已成為制約鋰供應增長的核心環節,鋰礦價格的持續走高也對鋰價形成支撐。我們維持鋰價在年中出現止跌反彈的判斷和板塊“強於大市”評級,建議圍繞鋰資源自給率和業績持續性兩條主線選擇標的,推薦贛鋒鋰業和鹽湖股份,建議關注永興材料。

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