《大行報告》高盛:當本港外匯儲備結餘跌至1,000億港元以下 HIBOR可能開始面臨更明顯上行壓力
高盛發表報告,根據其對之前美聯儲加息週期的分析,預計美聯儲利率變動與一個月香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)利率變動之間存在兩個季度的滯後,當本港外匯儲備結餘跌至1,000億港元以下,HIBOR可能開始面臨更明顯上行壓力。
該行認為,即使在美國利率上升以及內地和香港經濟在「清零」疫情政策疲軟下,聯繫匯率制度仍然具有很高的可信度,香港有足夠大的外匯儲備,截至2022年4月約為4,300億美元,是基礎貨幣的1.7倍,金管局既有能力、也表現出捍衛其聯繫匯率制度的意願,隨著新冠疫情減退,未來幾個月內地和香港的經濟增長可能會反彈。
高盛表示,港元轉向與人民幣掛鉤可能是一個長遠的可能性,但在此之前,香港須更廣泛地使用人民幣,並取決於人民幣國際化的進展,認為在接下來的幾年,沒有其他制度比目前的聯繫匯率制度明顯優越。
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