植耀輝: 六絕月「不絕」有望反彈 東方海外(00316.HK)續持有
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股近期走勢反覆,部分板塊如內房及汽車股在憧憬內地會有更多政策扶持下走勢略有改善,但科技股如騰訊(00700.HK)及小米(01810.HK)季績表現相當「麻麻」,在次季亦難有寄望以及外圍科技股弱勢下,短期股價疲弱在所難免矣!雖然筆者對中概股看法依舊有保留,不過對大市看法又不會太淡,甚至認爲有機會出現久違之反彈!皆因預期一旦內地疫情持續有改善,在保增長的大前提下,中央或會推出一系列惠民及刺激經濟措施,監管亦有望稍爲鬆綁,對投資氣氛應有一定幫助;而且根據歷史數據,港股「六絕月」其實亦不算絕,過去40年6月升跌比例均等,所以不妨小注吸納部分政策受惠股,例如上文提到之內房及汽車股。唯一較大不明朗因素在於外圍表現,聯儲局加息步伐以及美國經濟最新表現,將繼續左右投資市場去向。
股份方面,筆者早前推介之東方海外(00316.HK)近期走勢不俗,亦跟各位跟進相關策略。其實近期航運股整體表現一般,SCFI(上海集裝箱運費指數)亦已連續十七個星期下跌,業界正觀望上海一旦解封後的狀況。唯獨是東方海外股價接連上升,主要原因應是與被納入MSCI中國指數有關。不過撇除相關因素,航運需求依然殷切,而SCFI雖連跌多個星期,但與去年同期相比其實仍高出超過三成,何況息高是東方海外另一賣點,所以除非行業景氣出現明顯變化,否則筆者暫仍傾向長線持有。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有東方海外股份)
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恆指需升穿50天線才能打破浪低於浪的格局
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(19日)美股反覆下跌,美國首次申領失業救濟人數達21.8萬,高過預期的20萬,市場擔憂經濟衰退的風險,零售商繼續挨沽,道指曾經跌500點,資金繼續追入債市,10年期債息一度回落11.36個基點,至2.7705釐。標指較紀錄高位回吐約18%,接近步入技術性熊市。中概股出現反彈,金龍中國指數升3%,港股有望出現反彈,黑期彈近400點,再度挑戰20天線阻力。
今日(20日)中國將公佈貸款市場報價利率(LPR),市場預計1年及5年期利率均會下調5個基點,至3.65%及4.55%,留意內地能否繼續放水支持市況反彈。同一時間,收市後恆指亦會公佈季檢結果,較大機會「染藍」的股份包括協鑫科技(03800.HK)、中芯國際(00981.HK)及中升(00881.HK)。
技術上,恆指於10天線暫時找到支持,不過以2月份高位25000點起計,恆指仍然受壓於一條下降軌中,恆指需要升穿50天線才能打破浪底於浪的格局。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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