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《大行報告》高盛:美國經濟有35%機會未來兩年步入衰退 二戰以來12次衰退標指自峰值下跌幅度中位數達24%
阿思達克 05-19 10:11
高盛發表研究報告,美國經濟在未來兩年內陷入衰退的可能性為35%,並認為國債收益率曲線反映了類似的收縮可能性,美股輪動表明,與近期經濟數據的強勁程度相比,投資者認為經濟下滑的可能性更高。 報告認為,股息期貨市場意味著標普500指數的股息將在2023年下降近5%,在過去60年中,標普500指數的股息並未在經濟衰退之外時間下降。 高盛表示,在二戰以來的12次衰退中,標普500指數從峰值到谷底的中位數收縮了24%,如以自今年1月標普500指數近4,800點峰值錄得同樣跌幅,將使標普500指數跌至約3,650點,即比當前水平低11%,若平均下跌30%,將使標普500指數跌至3,360點,即比當前水平跌18%。 報告稱,衰退前十二個月,防守性板塊及「具質素」因素通常跑贏市場。自1981年起五次衰退,平均經驗反映能源、必需消費品、康健護理、公用板塊通常跑贏指數。
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