《大行報告》高盛下調內地今年經濟增長預測至4%
高盛發表報告,將內地今年經濟增長預測由4.5%下調至4%,以反映次季新冠疫情對經濟帶來的影響。高盛指,該增長預測已假設疫情將大致受控,房地產市場開始改善,以及政府在未來幾個月向基礎設施支出提供大規模的政策支持。
報告稱,中國4月經濟數據出乎預期疲弱,新屋動工及銷售按年跌40%,新增信貸較市場預期低出逾半。核心通脹年率降至低於1%。經整合4月數據後,該行下調內地今年次季GDP年化季率預測,由原先升2%降至跌7.5%,意味次季GDP年率增長預測由原先4%降至1.5%。
高盛解釋,4月數據疲弱反映中國增長展望核心內,增長目標與維持「動態清零」之間的緊張關係。即使3月及4月內地防疫經濟成本重大,內地當局未有就約5.5%的GDP增長目標作退讓,5月初重申堅持「動態清零」。
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