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瑞銀汪濤料中國第二季GDP按季跌6%
阿思達克 05-18 11:27
瑞銀表示,內地疫情衝擊升溫,4月經濟增長大幅走弱。社會消費品零售受到最大的衝擊,按年下降11%,房地產銷售按年下降近40%,汽車銷售按年下跌32%,工業生產按年下降近3%。 瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤預計,內地5月供應鏈擾動情況會逐漸改善,復工復產持續進行,帶動投資和生產企穩反彈。政策支持有望加碼,但不足以推升全年增長實現政策目標,預計第二季(年化下)GDP按季跌6%,弱於該此前的預測下跌1%左右,意味著第二季度GDP按年增速降至2%以內。 汪濤又稱,展望國內經濟增長和政策,停工停產和貿易活動受限最嚴重的時期可能已經過去,消費復甦進程可能更為緩慢。政策支持有望加碼,但不足以推升全年增長達到政策目標。 汪濤估計,5月工業生產和貿易增速將有所反彈,社會消費品零售也有望回暖。但動態清零政策會持續限制經濟活動,抑制消費者預期,同時導致企業推遲生產和資本開支。防疫政策沒有明顯寬鬆、或無大幅政策支持,意味瑞銀全年GDP增長4.2%的預測面臨顯著的下行壓力。如果政府放鬆防疫政策,物流和生產擾動消退,汪濤仍預計在第三四季經濟增長會企穩反彈。
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