《大行報告》中金:港交所(00388.HK)長期競爭力持續強化 指估值進入佈局區間
中金發表研究報告表示,看好港交所(00388.HK)長期業務發展,推算2025年在中概股回歸及持續轉化、二次上市轉為雙重第一上市及潛在納入互聯互通、ETF通等新產品,將推進MSCI及恆生類衍生產品業務的擴容,將合計帶來增量收入37億元及盈利料達25.6億元,分別佔2021年港交所收入及盈利的17.7%和20.4%,長遠推高其內生增長率和交易換手率。
該行指出,港交所股本回報率(ROE)維持於高水平,主要受惠於區域壟斷經營下的高利潤水平、跨週期的高增長性及輕資本模式支撐的高分紅策略,雖然收購LME導政ROE中樞有所下行,但近年公司淨利潤率維持高位擴張,資產周轉率提升,業務持續增長,高派息策略下淨資產溫和提升,以及相對克制的外延發展策略,認為港交所依靠穩定的商業模式及業務內生增長驅動下,長期ROE有望上升至約50%水平。
中金認為,港交所長期競爭力持續強化,相信短期內首季業績受高基數影響已得以消化,有望自第二季起逐季改善,估值進入佈局區間,2023年預測市盈率調整至28.6倍,下行風險有限,維持今明兩年盈利預測不變,並維持「跑贏行業」評級及目標價460元。
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