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《大行報告》中金:內地5月汽車業復產如期推進 刺激政策預期增強 看好底部反彈趨勢
中金發表報告指,內地5月汽車業復產如期推進,多地出台促汽車消費政策,有望推動汽車產銷加速恢復,同時提振市場情緒,板塊估值較低,看好底部反彈趨勢。 中金指,4月底以來,上海地區及其他減產幅度較大的車企復工復產進度良好,5月底有望逐步恢復完整產能,預計5月批發銷量有望實現按月增長約40%,但仍低於3月批發銷量25%左右,次季為全年產銷和經營低點。 中金指,多地出台促汽車消費政策,穩汽車需求預期增強。近期汽車板塊行情略有反彈,但據萬得一致預測數據,當前汽車各個細分板塊估值水平仍處於歷史均值以下。同時盈利預測整體有所下調,已較充分反映產銷下滑、原材料漲價的風險。隨著復工復產、產銷恢復乃至刺激政策落地,估值仍具向上彈性。 該行建議關注頭部自主整車和新勢力車企,包括理想-W(02015.HK)、小鵬-W(09868.HK)、蔚來-SW(09866.HK)、長城汽車(02333.HK)、吉利(00175.HK)。另建議關注復工復產核心受益標的福耀玻璃(03606.HK),重卡方面建議關注濰柴動力(02338.HK)、中國重汽(03808.HK)。
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