大新下調內地今年經濟增長預測至4.3%
大新銀行高級經濟師溫嘉煒表示,內地上月疫情處於高峯,明顯打擊各個經濟環節表現。內地4月工業生產按年跌2.9%,顯示疫情或導致部分工廠停產、交通中斷;零售銷售按年下挫11.1%,反映各種封控措施令消費萎縮,兩項數據均創2020年初疫情首次爆發後最差表現。
他指,內地上海等地的疫情相信在4月已經見頂並穩步回落,但北京的疫情繼續傳播,在堅持「動態清零」目標的前提下,內地整體的防疫措施可能仍會維持偏緊較長時間,相信5月的經濟活動未必能有大幅改善。
他認爲,人民銀行昨日(16日)未有調低一年期中期借貸便利利率,但週末期間宣佈首次購房者貸款利率下限下調至貸款市場報價利率(LPR)減20個基點,符合中央支持剛性和改善性住房需求的目標,近日亦先後宣佈多項再貸款措施,支持特定行業。不過在疫情困擾下,各項政策措施短期內料較難發揮全面作用。
該行估計內地今年整體的增長前景仍面臨較大壓力,因此將今年內地經濟增長預測由早前的4.8%進一步下調至4.3%,反映疫情對內需的衝擊,以及外需預料會放緩。人民銀行相信仍會避免大幅放寬貨幣政策,以免加劇人民幣貶值壓力,但本週五(20日)公佈的LPR有機會溫和下調5個基點;財政政策方面,會繼續有措施刺激消費和推動基建投資。
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