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《大行報告》瑞銀:能源、電訊、醫療保健設備和零售行業股價較不受匯率波動影響
阿思達克 05-16 09:46
瑞銀發表報告指,過去6星期人民幣對美元貶值7%,目前預測美元兌人民幣匯率在未來幾個月有可能突破7,並在年底見6.9。 報告指,雖然人民幣貶值理論上有利出口為主的公司,但歷史數據顯示,人民幣貶值通常伴隨著股市的低迷表現,例如2015年至2016年和2018年,可能是與市場憂慮經濟增長和資本外流有關。 該行指,股價與匯率有較高相關性的行業包括運輸(特別是航空公司)、材料、銀行和硬件技術,而能源、電訊、醫療保健設備和零售行業股價則較不受匯率波動影響。 瑞銀認為,隨著經濟活動低迷和人民幣急劇貶值,股市短期內可能仍然低迷。但注意MSCI中國目前的遠期預測市盈率為10.1倍,比歷史平均的13倍水平低,相信大部分的下行空間已於現價反映。
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