瑞銀下調今年中國GDP增長預測至5%以下
瑞銀發表《封控措施會影響增長嗎?》報告表示,中國多地發生Omicron疫情以及因此而採取的封控措施,為整體經濟帶來挑戰,故將今年中國GDP增長預測下調至5%以下,惟料政策支持加大力度,有望幫助下半年經濟增長從第二季的低谷復甦。
該行表示,將今年MSCI中國指數盈利增長預測下調2個百分點至11%,以反映三大行業增長或放緩:通信服務、可選消費和工業。該行表示,受近期市場震盪,持續建議增加週期和價值股配置,同時也看好準備進行或已進行股票回購的公司。
該行表示,隨著投資級債券收益率升至4.7%以上,預計需求將有所恢復。在利率波動的環境下,該行表示,偏好短存續期(久期)投資級債券;還認為在年報公布後,投資級與BB級中資房企債券有上行潛力。
而匯率方面,該行表示已上調美元/人民幣預測,建議基於美元的投資者對沖人民幣多頭頭寸。(ca/a)
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